Confluence — When Independent Lenses Agree

The definition

Confluence = multiple INDEPENDENT analyses pointing the same way at the same place: structure (higher low at support), level (the 50-day MA sitting inside the zone), momentum (RSI holding its uptrend band), participation (volume drying on the dip). Each lens has its own failure rate; agreement across lenses multiplies the odds — because their errors are mostly uncorrelated.

What is NOT confluence

RSI + Stochastic + CCI agreeing is not confluence — same category, same inputs, same echo (day 13). Confluence requires different KINDS of evidence: structure + derivative + participation + location. Four same-category signals are one signal with four names.

The scoring habit

Before any trade, list the lenses that agree and the ones that disagree. 4-for-4 alignment = full size. 3-for-4 = half size. 2-for-4 = watchlist, not trade. The discipline is not the scoring itself — it is that scoring FORCES you to notice the disagreeing lens instead of hiding from it.

Sources

• Technical Analysis of the Financial MarketsJohn Murphy
• Trading for a LivingAlexander Elder