Macro Regimes

Lessons

• CAPE, Constructed8 min read · Why Robert Shiller divides the index by ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings — and what 150
• What CAPE Actually Predicts8 min read · The regression, the r², and the honest statement of the relationship: decades, not months — with
• Using CAPE Without Wrecking a Portfolio7 min read · Regime tilt, not timing: the mechanical rules that respect the signal's horizon and the cost of
• Why the Curve Slopes — Term Premium and Expectations7 min read · What the market is pricing when it lends long vs short: the expectations hypothesis, the term
• Inversions — Evidence, False Positives, and the Right Spread9 min read · The post-1968 track record, the two famous fakes, lead times, and why the Fed's own preferred
• Rates and Equity Duration — the 2022 Lesson7 min read · Stocks are duration assets. The math of why 2022 broke the 60/40 assumption, and what real yields
• Liquidity Regimes — QE, QT, and Risk Assets7 min read · How the Fed's balance sheet flows into risk pricing, and why 2020 and 2022 were the same mechanism
• Case File: Three Regimes, One Decade8 min read · 2013, 2020, 2022 — the decade's three shocks through the same two-panel lens, with the honest
• The Regime Playbook — Your Five-Minute Weekly Check6 min read · Combining the two panels into four quadrants with pre-committed behaviors, and the weekly routine

Sources

Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (3rd ed.); Estrella & Mishkin (1996); multpl.com; US Treasury