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Macro & Rates
Growth, Policy and the Curve
- Output and Growth: What the Number Measures25 min read · Gross domestic product is an accounting identity — consumption plus investment plus
- The Reaction Function: How Policy Is Actually Set30 min read · A central bank sets a short-term nominal rate in response to two gaps — inflation against
- Nominal and Real: the Fisher Relation30 min read · A nominal return is a promise about a number of dollars, and what matters is what those
- The Yield Curve and Its Spreads35 min read · The curve is the market’s set of expected future short rates plus a term premium, so its
- Reading a CPI Print30 min read · Contributions are additive, so a print is a weighted sum of category changes and can be
- Reading the Jobs Report: Payrolls, Participation and Slack30 min read · The report contains two surveys of the same economy that routinely disagree: the
Inflation, Expectations and Transmission
- Expectations, Credibility and Disinflation35 min read · Expectations are the transmission belt of monetary policy: a shock becomes persistent
- Wages, Unit Labour Costs and the Phillips Curve35 min read · Unit labour cost is the bridge from the labour market to prices: compensation per hour
- Transmission: How Policy Reaches the Economy30 min read · An overnight rate changes nothing by itself: it reaches the economy through funding
- Credit Spreads and Risk Appetite35 min read · A credit spread pays for expected loss, for the volatility and clustering of that loss
- Fiscal Policy and the Debt Arithmetic35 min read · Debt sustainability is a comparison between the interest rate and the growth rate
- Growth, Inflation and the Four Regimes30 min read · Two axes, four quadrants: growth above or below trend against inflation above or below
Rates, Regimes and the Cycle
- Duration and the Price of a Rate Move35 min read · Duration measures how much a position loses for a given move in yields, and it is the one
- Rate Regimes and Asset Returns35 min read · Equities are long-duration claims, so what matters is the change in the rate used to
- Term Premium, Issuance and the Balance Sheet35 min read · A long yield is the average expected short rate over its life plus a term premium for
- The Real-Economy Channel: Housing, Credit and the Refinancing Wall35 min read · Policy becomes real through balance sheets, and housing is the most rate-sensitive sector
- Case: 2022, When Both Legs Fell35 min read · Diversification works when the assets respond to different variables, and in 2022 both
- The Dollar, FX and Global Flows30 min read · An exchange rate is the relative price of two monetary policies, so it moves on the
Announcements, Crises and the Briefing
- Reading the FOMC: Statement, Projections and Press Conference35 min read · The decision is usually priced, so the information is in the language: a changed
- Case: 2008 and the Credit Channel35 min read · A financial crisis is a transmission mechanism running in reverse: the spread between the
- Case: March 2020, and the Path to 3.75–4.00%35 min read · In March 2020 the assets used as collateral stopped being accepted as money, so the run
- Case: The Great Inflation and the Volcker Disinflation35 min read · The great inflation was not one shock but a sequence in which each shock was accommodated
- The Neutral Rate: What the Long Run Pays35 min read · The neutral rate is the real rate at which output sits at potential with stable
- Capstone Lab: The Macro Briefing40 min read · A macro briefing is a chain of arithmetic that ends in a portfolio exposure: the regime
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Learn content is for education only — not individualized financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options involve substantial risk. Examples are simplified and historical patterns never guarantee future results.