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Market Psychology
Behavioral Biases
- Loss Aversion and the Disposition Effect25 min read · A loss is felt at roughly twice an equivalent gain, so the account feels worse the tidier
- Anchoring: The Price That Haunts You25 min read · Your entry price and a stock’s old highs are memories rather than valuations — the market
- Confirmation and the Story After the Purchase25 min read · A thesis written after a purchase tends to be a defence of the purchase, so the useful
- Overconfidence and the Illusion of Skill30 min read · Confidence is necessary and overconfidence is not the same thing: the failure is
- Hindsight, Outcome Bias and the Verdict on a Decision30 min read · A decision is judged on what was knowable when it was made; the outcome is a draw from a
- Mental Accounting and the House-Money Effect30 min read · Money is fungible and the mind is not: a floating gain is already owned, so “risking the
Process Over Prediction
- FOMO and the Arithmetic of a Chase25 min read · A chase buys a much larger position than the plan it replaced, because a tight stop near
- Sunk Costs and the Escalation of Commitment30 min read · A sunk cost cannot be recovered by a decision, so the only question is forward-looking
- Revenge Trading and the Cool-Down25 min read · After a loss the state that produced the loss is still running, so the reliable response
- Stress, Load and the Pre-Tilt State30 min read · Acute stress does not reduce the effort available, it changes which system is deciding
- The Journal as a Bias Detector30 min read · A journal is not documentation; it is the only dataset about your own behaviour, and the
- Herding and Social Proof: The Crowd as Evidence30 min read · A cascade forms when people infer from each other’s actions instead of their own
Thinking in Probabilities
- Base Rates Before Stories30 min read · A base rate is the starting estimate and the specific story is an adjustment to it — and
- Luck, Skill and What a Result Is Attributed To30 min read · A result is attributed by mechanism rather than by preference — beta, sample size and the
- Streaks Are the Design30 min read · A losing streak is scheduled by the win rate rather than caused by a broken method: at
- Regret and the Weighting of Small Probabilities30 min read · Small probabilities are overweighted, so a negative-expectancy long shot feels like a
- Calibration and the Scenario Table30 min read · A view becomes usable when it is written as scenarios with probabilities and a price
- Survivorship and the Sample You Actually See30 min read · Every sample available to a trader is the subset that survived, and selection is not
Deciding in Advance
- Pre-Commitment: Deciding Before the Moment30 min read · Every bias in this subject operates on a moment, so the countermeasure that generalises
- If-Then Plans and the Designed Environment30 min read · A plan works when it names a detectable cue and a concrete response, because the cue then
- Tilt: What One Trade Costs30 min read · Tilt does not merely cost money — it converts a normal variance day into a recovery
- The Drawdown and the Comeback30 min read · Recovery is a division, not a subtraction — the gain needed is D ÷ (1 − D) — and the
- The Playbook, Audited30 min read · The playbook’s value is the gap between what the process produced and what the same book
- Capstone: The One-Page Policy40 min read · The policy is a hypothesis about the trader rather than a promise about the market: every
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Learn content is for education only — not individualized financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options involve substantial risk. Examples are simplified and historical patterns never guarantee future results.