65-Day Academy · Day 59 · Method & Backtesting
Plan Fidelity — the Metric That Predicts Everything
The finding
Among traders who journal, plan-fidelity (the % of trades that followed the written plan) is a better predictor of eventual profitability than any market view. The logic: a mediocre plan followed 100% produces measurable, improvable results; a great plan followed 60% produces noise — you cannot tell whether the edge or the execution failed. Fidelity makes the system TESTABLE.
The revision protocol
Plans change — quarterly, with data: expectancy by setup (day 38's journal analysis), fidelity score, and regime changes (day 42). The iron rule: no revisions mid-drawdown and never after a single loss (that is the revenge impulse in committee form). The plan is amended by the analyst, not by the trader in pain.
What you'll practise
True or false: after two losses, temporarily suspending your plan's stop rules "until things stabilize" is a reasonable adaptation.
10 XP in the app · introductory
Sources
- Trading in the ZoneMark Douglas
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All lessons are for educational purposes only and are not individualized financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor.